Bulgaria is the country with the highest negative population growth rate out of all EU members. The population decline is the result of the negative demographic trend in villages – the population in villages drops at double the average rates of decline for the country. But the downward trend continues in towns as well. In all parts of Bulgaria, the population growth is negative.

 

Even with the most optimistic forecasts, the demographic decline in Bulgaria exerts stable pressure on the budget and will hamper economic growth, i.e. the majority of Bulgarians will continue to be poor over the coming decades. Public spending as part of the GDP is expected to go up in the long-term as a result of expenditures in health care and state transfers to the pension system. Ultimately, Bulgaria’s debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to grow from 18 to 51 percent by end 2050.

 

Statisticians say that the population drop in the country is not in consequence of emigration of Bulgarian citizens but most of all of the negative population growth rate – high mortality and low birth rate. In 2014 the number of children born in the country stood at 67,585 and of deaths – 108,952 and this brought the population down by 41,367. National Statistical Institute data indicate that over the past ten years the population of Bulgarian has dwindled by 558,851. The tendency continues of women over 40 giving birth to more children - from 1,276 in 2013 to 1, 517 in 2014. 40,145 was the number of births out of wedlock last year as compared to 27,938 legitimate births.

 

Analysis of the demographic state of the nation shows that the process of migration in a town-to-village direction has been growing more intensive compared to the opposite direction – village-to-town. In 2014 a total of 26,615 people moved to Bulgaria from abroad. This figure does not include the over 11,000 refugees seeking asylum in Bulgaria.

Source: BNR