Wikileaks: Дежа вю: руският енергиен шантаж и "циркът" на Атака

Внимателният прочит на стари дипломатически грами от американското посолство в София, разкрити от Wikieleaks оставя впечатление за "дежа вю" в днешните драматични събития в София.

През 2006 г. Шефът на Газпром Медведев лично е заплашил премиера Станишев, че ще спре газовите доставки ако България не предоговори изгодния за страната договор (б.ред. подписан от кабинета "Костов") - пише посланик Байърли в грама от април 2006 г.

Три години по-късно, през 2009 в Гданск същата заплаха е отправил Владимир Путин към Бойко Борисов. Ако не се задвижи проекта Белене, "българите рискуват да останат на студено тази зима" - казал Путин на Борисов извън протокола.

През 2011 заплахата да "останем на студено през зимата" все още е реална, а проектът Белене е на път да стане необратим, благодарение на усилията лично на Бойко Борисов и на неговия ментор Валентин Златев.

През 2006 г. Атака устройва манифестации и протести против подписването на Договора за сътрудничество в отбраната (DCA), окачествени от Байърли като "такъв цирк".

Както Биволъ вече писа, "циркът" на Атака се разиграва в ключови моменти, но е предвидим. Днешното съобщение от Москва, че Кремъл се безпокои от разполагане на ПРО на САЩ в България е част от този предвидим сценарий.

През 2011 "циркът" организиран от Атака може да завърши с опасен етнически пожар ако властта и най-вече прокуратурата в лицето на Борис Велчев не пресече разпалването на етническа омраза организирано от Сидеров.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000565 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR THE SECRETARY FROM AMBASSADOR BEYRLE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2016 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, MARR, ENRG, EINV, OVIP, EUN, LY, IZ, BG 
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR YOUR BILATERAL PROGRAM IN SOFIA 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador John Beyrle for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY.  All of Bulgaria -- and many others in the 
region -- will be watching April 27 as you and Foreign 
Minister Kalfin sign in Sofia the Defense Cooperation 
Agreement (DCA), which gives U.S. military forces access to 
Bulgarian bases.  The long-awaited agreement will be the 
highlight of your bilateral agenda and a major milestone in 
our relations with this consistently reliable ally.  Bulgaria 
is working hard to get into the European Union on January 1 
and, with troops in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Western 
Balkans, is boxing above its weight on the world stage.  The 
government has asked for and deserves our active support on 
behalf of their on-time membership in the EU.  They are also 
looking for your help in casting the DCA as a victory, and in 
putting the military aspects of our relationship in a larger 
overall context that includes close political and economic 
cooperation.  Your overall message should be that Bulgaria is 
a valued partner in the security sphere and across the full 
range of U.S. interests. 
 
2. (C) Passivity in the face of corruption and organized 
crime has been the weak point not only in this government's 
record, but its predecessors' as well.  This may be starting 
to change under pressure from the EU and with the appointment 
of a respected new Chief Prosecutor.  The government's 
ability to actively promote democracy in the Western Balkans 
or Black Sea region has been hampered by its near-total focus 
on EU membership, but it is ready in principle to play a 
role.  In the longer term, we should encourage Bulgaria to 
wean itself from over-dependence on Russian energy.  As for 
domestic politics, the pro-American coalition headed by 
Socialist Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev, whom you will 
meet, is stable in the near term, but is held together 
primarily by the quest for EU membership.  President Purvanov 
will seek this November to be the first Bulgarian President 
re-elected since the collapse of communism.  END SUMMARY. 
 
PUTTING THE "BASE AGREEMENT" IN CONTEXT 
--------------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) The signing of the Defense Cooperation Agreement is a 
monumental event for Bulgaria.  The Agreement, which gives 
the U.S. access to two air bases and an army training area, 
will lay the remaining foundation for the brigade-sized 
Eastern European Task Force, which will have its headquarters 
in Romania.  The negotiations have been the subject of 
widespread -- and more often than not, inaccurate -- coverage 
in the local news media.  Many Bulgarians oppose the idea of 
"foreign bases" on their soil, fear the United States will 
use Bulgaria as a launching pad to attack Iran, or believe 
that the U.S. presence will make Bulgaria a target for 
terrorists.  Polls show that the more people learn about the 
proposed U.S. presence, the less they oppose it, but the 
government still needs to do more to explain the agreement to 
the public. 
 
4. (C)  It is important for the government and the public to 
hear from you that Bulgaria is a valued and equal partner, 
not just in the security sphere, but across the entire 
spectrum of our relationship.  There is a strong basis for 
that judgment.  The DCA comes on the heels of a government 
decision to send troops back to Iraq after campaigning last 
year on a platform of immediate withdrawal, and coincides 
with the ramping up of its presence in Afghanistan, where 
Bulgaria will soon take over security for Kabul airport. 
Consequently, the government is seeking to shift some of the 
focus of public discussion away from the military aspects of 
our relationship and toward the political and economic.  Here 
too, we have a good story to tell.  Huge U.S. investments are 
in the pipeline, including a 1.4 billion dollar power plant 
built by AES and a Hewlett-Packard call-service center that 
will create some 1000 knowledge-based jobs.  We still lag 
behind our EU partners in terms of direct foreign investment, 
but Bulgarian audiences need to hear that we will not be 
satisfied until we are number one. 
 
ENERGY DIVERSIFICATION 
---------------------- 
 
5. (C) AES' investment in a new, clean coal-fired power plant 
will help Bulgaria diversify its dependence on Russian 
energy, but only marginally.  Bulgaria buys 88 percent of its 
gas and 73 percent of its oil from Russia, resulting as well 
in a huge bilateral trade deficit.  This energy dependency 
 
SOFIA 00000565  002 OF 002 
 
 
was brought home in December when, in a near-replay of events 
in Ukraine,  Gazprom Vice Chairman Medvedev personally 
threatened Stanishev with a cut-off of Russian supplies if 
Bulgaria did not agree to renegotiate the terms of its 
current gas contract.  The crisis was eventually defused, but 
the bottom line is that Bulgaria is paying 35 percent below 
market prices for its gas, affording Moscow significant 
potential leverage over Sofia.  Helping Bulgaria to avoid 
putting all its eggs in one basket is a long-term project, 
but one in which we should remain engaged. 
 
EU ACCESSION AND RULE-OF-LAW PROBLEMS 
------------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) The current government is understandably focused on 
getting into the EU on time.  Brussels is sending mixed 
signals, in part to keep Bulgaria's feet to the fire on 
reform.  Current thinking appears to be that Bulgaria will 
join the Union as scheduled, but with at least a Justice and 
Home Affairs (JHA) safeguard clause and continued EU 
monitoring in that area.  The Bulgarians are concerned by 
rumors the EU may be designing additional monitoring 
mechanisms for Bulgaria even after accession that could 
affect the flow of structural funds.  President Purvanov has 
just sent a personal plea to President Bush asking for 
support of Bulgaria's EU accession.  They will likely 
reiterate this request in their meetings with you. 
 
7. (C) Bulgaria's problems with Brussels are primarily in the 
area of rule of law.  Successive governments have shown 
little inclination to deal forcefully with the problems of 
corruption and organized crime, preferring instead to pass 
new laws and showcase relatively minor enforcement successes. 
 Your message should be that there is no daylight between the 
U.S. and the EU on this issue:  Bulgaria needs to prosecute 
organized crime bosses cum "businessmen," as well as corrupt 
politicians.  It needs to clean up its system of public 
procurement, which is plagued by kickbacks and sweetheart 
deals.  And it needs to break the dependence of political 
parties on cash financing from favor-seeking business 
interests. 
 
NURSES IN LIBYA, FLOODS AND KOSOVO 
---------------------------------- 
 
8. (C) Last but not least, Bulgarians want to hear that we 
are working hard to secure the release of the five nurses 
unjustly imprisoned in Libya since 1999.  Depending on how 
the situation develops over the next week, you should also be 
prepared to express condolences for flood losses along the 
Danube.  And you should privately encourage Bulgarian leaders 
to continue playing a constructive role on the margins of the 
Kosovo final status talks by helping to build confidence 
between the two sides.  On that issue, the government seems 
to accept that Kosovo will gain its independence, but is 
concerned about a possible spill-over effect, especially in 
neighboring Macedonia. 
 
THE POLITICAL SCENE 
-------------------- 
 
9. (C) You will be arriving in a relatively stable political 
environment, although President Purvanov is already looking 
at nearly every issue through the lens of the November 
presidential elections.  The three-party coalition led by PM 
Stanishev has a comfortable majority in parliament.  The 
government easily survived a perfunctory vote of 
no-confidence on April 19 by a margin of 161 votes to 61. 
Events on the horizon, however, could begin to pull the 
disparate coalition partners in different directions.  These 
include the November presidential election and the conditions 
linked to EU membership.  If Bulgaria gets into the Union on 
January 1, the raison d'tre for this coalition will no 
longer be present, but inertia and the desire to avoid 
hanging separately may keep the partners together.  If 
accession is delayed, the desire to shift blame among the 
parties will exert a stronger centrifugal force.  Finally, 
the extreme nationalist Ataka party plans to protest the 
signing of the DCA during your visit.  The protests may draw 
media attention if for no other reason than that Ataka is 
such a circus, but we do not believe they can distract from 
your message. 
 
Beyrle

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