Djankov’s forecast for 2012: Optimistic economic growth is 2.5%; the pessimistic scenario is for 1%

“Although the economic situation in Europe remains difficult, Bulgaria is financially stabile. This gives us reason to believe that 2012 will be better than the last three years,” Finance Minister Simeon Djankov said for bTV in his last interview for 2011. He predicted that according to the most pessimistic scenario, Bulgaria will register 1% economic growth, while the optimistic one suggests growth of some 2.5%.

The Government, however, within its budget for 2012 projects some 2.9% economic growth, i.e. higher than the expectations of the Finance Minister.

Djankov reaffirmed his intention to reduce the VAT rate by 1-2% next year but the time of the change will be a surprise. This step is of crucial importance because it will automatically result in a reduction of the inflation rate by the same percentage. The Government’s programme did project a reduction of the VAT rate, but the decision was delayed due to the global crisis, explained Djankov.

Once again, the Finance Minister praised the work of the National Revenue Agency, specifying that NRA and the Customs Agency managed to collect proceeds exceeding the planned revenues by more than BGN 1.5 bn. Regarding the idea of introducing a tax police, Djankov explained that legislative amendments were under draft and the aim was for the tax police to launch regular inspections of VAT frauds and of the chains of companies connected with these offences. Regarding the customs police, which is to begin operations as of January 1, 2012, it became clear that 30 police investigators were trained and certified and they will have the right to detain for 24-hours people suspected to be involved in smuggling channels.

Regarding criticisms towards the State due to its huge liabilities to businesses for fulfilled public procurement orders, Djankov explained that the State owes only BGN 50 mln, half of this amount – for the construction of the so-called Water Mirror near Kardjali. “This money will be paid from the 2012 budget and the other liabilities have not been remitted so far on the request of businesses themselves, which have asked the money to be disbursed next year. The big problem for businesses are not its receivables from the State, but the intercompany indebtedness which remains high due to the unreformed judicial system,” Djankov is adamant.

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