EBRD lowers its forecast for Bulgaria’s economic growth to 2.3%

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has lowered its forecast for economic growth in Bulgaria to 2.3% in 2011. In May, the bank forecast growth of 3.1%, while next year's forecast suggested an acceleration in the economic recovery to 3.7%, according to its latest outlook for 29 countries from Europe and Central Asia. In general, experts reported that the crisis in the Eurozone exposed to serious risks the recovery and growth in the emerging economies on the old continent, especially in Southeastern Europe and the new EU member-states.

However, the general forecast for the pace of development of the region is that it will be twice faster than the figures for Bulgaria - 4.8% (compared to 4.6% in May) and 4.4% for 2011 and 2012.

Out of the seven countries in Southeastern Europe, including Bulgaria, Serbia will see the most substantial economic progress - 3.3% GDP growth in 2011 and 4.1% next year. The group is expected to record a total growth of 2.2% and 3.7% in 2011 and 2012, respectively.

Recovery in Southeastern Europe, which still remains weak, is most directly affected by the financial instability associated with the debt crisis in Europe, warned the experts from the EBRD. This is mainly due to the subsidiaries of Greek banks. If the crisis escalates further, these institutions may be forced to ask for financial support and experience difficulties with the crediting of local economies. This can result in a substantial contraction in the economic growth in Southeastern Europe, experts say.

Both for Bulgaria and Romania, the EBRD stated that the economic prospects are improving but still at a modest pace. According to experts, the Bulgarian economy managed to avoid the recession last year but recovery has slowed down over the first six months of the year. The assessment of the EBRD is close to the analyses of other financial institutions.

According to UniCredit Bulbank, economic growth in our country will lose some of its pace in the coming months because of difficulties in the recovery process and the worse outlook for the global economy.

Bank experts expect a growth of 2.8% and 3.3% in 2011 and 2012 on an annual basis. The analysts from OTP Bank, owner of Bulgarian DSK Bank, promise growth of 3.4% in the period 2012 to 2015. Eurobank EFG Group predicts more than 2.5% growth for 2011 and the consulting firm Ernst & Young sets a growth rate of 3.2% this year, which will accelerate to 4.8% in 2012 and 5.6% in 2013.

According to the European Commission, Bulgaria’s GDP growth will reach 2.8% this year and 3.7% next year. At the same time, the Cabinet expects a growth of 3.6% in 2011, while IMF's forecast is for 3% GDP growth in 2011.

Прочети цялата новина

Свързани новини: