CED: We expect up to 2% GDP growth in 2013

The increase in Bulgaria’s gross domestic product (GDP) will remain below 2% in 2013, according to a forecast for the development of the country’s economy of the Center for Economic Development (CED), presented by its Chairperson Georgi Prohasky. The stagnation of the Bulgarian economy will continue this year and the economic growth will be only around 1%, the CED predicted.

GDP data as of January 2013 show that the actual economic growth has remained low. On an annual basis, GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2012 was between 0.3% and 0.5% and the quarterly growth was in the range of 0% - 0.3%. The expectations for a better second half of 2012 did not come true, the CED commented. Despite the slight differences in the 2012 quarterly data, Q2 was the best one. In Q3, 2012, GDP growth slowed down to 0.9% on an annual basis.

The data on the dynamics of labour productivity in Bulgaria’s economy until the third quarter of 2012 showed a tentative improvement and a decrease in Q3, compared to Q2.

Georgi Prohasky commented that the gap between regions is widening, the unemployment rate being the highest in the economically underdeveloped regions. According to the CED, the unemployment rate will remain above 12% this year as well.

Bulgaria’s advantages are associated with its low budget deficit, the open market promoting trade and investments and the country’s efforts to revive the privatisation process. The main problems remain the widespread corruption, as well as the inefficient judicial system, susceptible to political pressure.

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