Bulgaria to counter demographic collapse via additional expenditures of 4.5% of GDP

By 2050, countering the demographic collapse will require an additional 4.5% of GDP on average of the EU member-states, according to the long-term assessments of the EC (European Commission). At the same time, due to the national specifics of the demographic process, the expected pressure on Bulgarian public finances will be much greater, alarmed the Economic and Social Council (ESC) of Bulgaria. Its Chairman, Professor Lalko Dulevski, explained for Klassa that the mechanism of the EC outlook is based on the percentage increase of persons of retirement age. However, the aggregate demographic processes in Bulgaria indicated that pressure on public finances could be much greater if there is no prevention of the demographic collapse.


The emerging workers-to-retirees ratio will further create tension over the state budget if there are no future prospects for the attainment of a substantially higher growth rate of labour productivity. In the last 3-4 decades, embarrassing processes such as growing unemployment and early dropping out of school have escalated in Bulgaria combined with an ageing nation, which will require additional budget allocations. Besides, when added to the direct costs for pensions, the burden on public finances will prove to be much greater than the financial load on the other EU countries, warned Dulevski.

The grave demographic problems are being considered only from time to time. There is no systematic and strategic scheme for tackling the problems of employment of qualified staff commented for Klassa, Vasil Velev, Chairman of the Industrial Capital Association. In his words, even before the crisis, Bulgaria felt the lack of human resources. According to Kamen Kolev, BIA (Bulgarian Industrial Association) Vice Chair, we are facing the paradox of the current growing unemployment rate and high demand for qualified staff. The trade unions claimed that government action must result from a national consensus. According to Konstantin Trenchev, President of the Confederation of Labour 'Podkrepa', a single measure will not resolve the issue since a serious package of future actions is needed.

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