Rumyana Kolarova, a political science graduate and expert: GERB and BSP played like parties who will meet in the runoff

- Mrs. Kolarova, what was won and lost by the parties from the no-confidence vote against the GERB (Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria) government, which took place on Tuesday?
- The motion of censure is not a zero-sum game in which, as we know, when one player wins, the other surely loses. Another trivial conclusion is that the outcome of this vote is not measured only by the listed votes for and against. Although the number of votes in support of the government was impressive, a contraction of the GERB parliamentary base was certainly registered. That is, there is a decline of the right-wing parliamentary support for the GERB Cabinet. Another trend is also being observed. In previous parliaments, independent MPs were nominated by the groups of the government since this is normal practice worldwide. By contrast, in this Parliament, we notice the contrary trend since groups of the opposition parties have been breaking away and 12 of the newly-emerged independent lawmakers support GERB's government. Even if during the last censure motion, the Ataka party had voted against or abstained, the mavericks from Ataka would have definitely supported GERB's Cabinet. This type of parliamentary majority is not regarded as productive because inter-party negotiations are always more transparent for the electorate. What is apparent from this vote is that GERB chose the easier victory instead of the worthier one.

- GERB's government blamed the right-wing parties that they are a part of the newly set-up Tripartite Coalition comprising the BSP (Bulgarian Socialist Party), MRF (Movement for Rights and Freedoms) and the Blue Coalition. Can this lead to a fading of support for the right-wing?
- Certainly, the Blue Coalition was placed in a position not allowing them to make a choice. This was a kind of trap. Since the beginning of the year, they have repeatedly criticised the Minister of Interior and his policy in the field of security and the fight against crime. We also witnessed a very sharp personal collision between Ivan Kostov and Tsvetan Tsvetanov. In this situation, the right-wing parties simply did not have a choice. According to my colleagues, the only strong move for them would have been to initiate a no-confidence vote. They failed to do this because they had already declared that they would not initiate a no-confidence motion until the next elections. This was a normal move allowing the vote of the citizens to be cast at the forthcoming elections to give an assessment of the government.

The right-wing became a victim of the situation since the left bloc (MRF and BSP) in a sense abused the principal political position of the traditional right-wing parties. However, the UDF (Union of Democratic Forces) and DSB (Democrats for Strong Bulgaria) won the censure motion because they showed that they are united before the upcoming election, despite the provocation on this occasion.

Ultimately, the third vote of no-confidence against the Borissov Cabinet demonstrated that, before the elections, both GERB and BSP are playing "safe" as two parties expecting to meet in the autumn run-off - not just for the presidential vote, but also for the mayoral elections in many towns.


- How will the results of the forthcoming elections affect the political situation in Bulgaria? Could there be early elections if GERB fails to nominate its own candidate for President?
- I think that it will be hard for GERB to lose the presidential elections. In order for this to happen, it must nominate a much weaker candidate from those previously announced. Besides, the hitherto nominations have not demonstrated any exceptional personal merits and charisma. GERB's loss is very difficult but not impossible. However, I do not think that the GERB will lose the presidential election. This would be a very big surprise. Even though GERB loses the presidential election, however, I think it will continue to pursue a policy that keeps the party away, as well as distance itself to the maximum from possible early parliamentary elections.

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