Election forecasts ahead of announcing all presidential candidates

 This time preparation for the elections has some peculiarities. Despite the fact it was the first party to file documents for participation in the elections, the ruling GERB party has not yet announced its presidential candidate.

At the beginning of the summer the party claimed it would do so in September; now it says it would do so on October 2. This way GERB is about to become not only the first party to announce its participation in the elections, but also the last one to announce its candidate. So much waiting is odd given the fact that preparations for presidential elections in Bulgaria usually take place earlier. The current situation is not only strange, but even begins to evoke bewilderment and to have a negative effect on the ruling political power as there are  doubts it has difficulties finding a strong competitor for the presidential position.

Until recently, intentions for forming coalitions existed in political circles but no serious ones were created. Rather than standing united as planned, the opposition leftist parties divided their votes by three. The planned coalition between BSP and ABC failed and left the impression of hostility between the two political forces. "Movement 21" of the former socialist Tatyana Doncheva not only abandoned ideas for a leftist coalition, but on the last day for registration declared it would participate in the elections in alliance with the liberal National Movement of Stability and Progress /NMSP/, which ruled the country some years ago in coalition with BSP under the name of National Movement Simeon II. The supposed right-wing coalition between GERB and the Reform Bloc also did not happen.

But the biggest surprise is the submission of documents for registration by an initiative committee that offers former Prime Minister Plamen Oresharski for president. Oresharski ruled with the mandate of the BSP with official support from the Movement for Rights and Freedoms and episodic, but crucial support from "Ataka." The surprise is greater because of the infamous end of the ruling of Oresharski and raises the question who and why supports his application. Some analysts suggest that he plays the role of a "fake duck," intended to give the unknown candidate of GERB the aura of an opponent to the oligarchy.

While there is no clarity about the nomination of GERB, sociologists already make some conclusions and forecasts. In any case, they say, elections will be held in two rounds. During the first one people will see specific political support and the degree of mobilization of individual supporters of each party will be a clue to whether calling for early parliamentary elections will be worth it. Personality and the abilities of each candidate will have more important role during the second round. Moreover, sociologists report that Bulgaria enters the presidential campaign at the backdrop of continuing low social trust in all major state institutions and therefore say the crisis of confidence could transform into a protest vote, or apathy and low turnout. Another feature of the pre-election situation is that the orientation of the electorate has been formed in conditions of growing concerns related to the current foreign policy environment.

What would be the result of this significant shift in the focus of attention in comparison to previous presidential elections is yet unclear.

 

English: Alexander Markov  

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