Economists forecast an exchange rate of BGN 1.20 per dollar

The dollar can be expected to fall quite dramatically by about 10-12% , reaching BGN 1.20 in the coming months, forecast the economist Nikola Paramov at a discussion on the debt markets and their impact on the Bulgarian economy and the domestic financial markets. According to him, the decision of USA to allow an increase in the deficit ceiling of up to $ 16 trln by 2020 is not well grounded. He assumed that the US economy would surpass the deficit threshold of $ 20 trln in the period 2015 – 2016. "If this happens, a controlled reduction in the dollar exchange rate should be undertaken. This will change the matrix of the Swiss franc and the British pound, but will limit our access to the US market as well, "said Paramov.

“There is no new economic crisis, only the crisis from 2008 still continues,” stated the economist Emil Harsev during the discussion. According to him, the crisis will not be overcome unless some difficult decisions are taken. "There are two possible steps, but investors and financiers are equally afraid of them. The first is characterised by belt tightening, discipline and economies, ie deflation. The second is printing of money, or inflation, which is not a problem for the USA because they do not owe to the world anything but dollars."

“The current crisis was expected and thus it will not be as deep and heavy as the previous one.” This conclusion emerged as one point of consensus among the economists during the discussion. The theory of Harsev that crises are not severe over the summer months, but become burdensome in October and November, was reminded as well. According to him, the capital markets will reach equilibrium, as the current trends indicate. So, there is no way for Bulgaria to be seriously affected, although there will be repercussions. Harsev said that the Government's decision to increase the minimum wage would not give rise to problems, but would not affect the real economy either, apart from increasing the quasi-tax burden.

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