Sociologist Zhivko Georgiev: The result of the referendum will not affect the electoral vote

Not surprisingly, PM Boyko Borissov appealed for a “No” vote in the referendum. Such a move could be expected, although it looks like yet another contradiction in the behaviour of GERB (Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria) and its leader. This is an attempt to minimise the damages to GERB from the referendum on a topic that is not particularly pleasant in the electoral context. I don’t believe this will seriously affect the electoral vote in a few months. Nobody will benefit from a low voting activity in the referendum, including the parties appealing for a boycott, because most of those who will not vote will do that for quite different reasons and not because they have been asked to vote "No".

Bulgarian democracy will lose in a sense, since this will be its first chance to exercise an instrument of direct democracy, such as a referendum. No winner in the referendum in a political context can be named. In another aspect – some lobbyist groups may win. In a civil aspect - we will all lose because there will hardly be another national referendum in the next 10 years. A low voting activity in the referendum can be a sign of a lower activity in the forthcoming parliamentary elections and relegate them to a hard-core party collision. My expectations at present are for some 3,300,000 ballots in the parliamentary elections, which makes probable the entry of more political forces in the National Assembly.

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