Alpha Research: GERB has 20.9%, BSP - 18.5%

Currently, GERB is the first political force with a 20.9% support, despite the 0.5% drop compared to September, a survey of public attitudes conducted by Alpha Research showed. BSP, which managed to fully mobilise its supporters around the upcoming referendum, has the support of 18.5% of voters. So far, four parties will certainly enter Parliament - GERB, BSP, MRF (5.4%) and Bulgaria for Citizens Movement (5.6%.). The former two will have enough weight to form a Government in coalition with one of the smaller parties, Alpha Research commented.

If, however, four other formations that are now just above or below the 4% barrier succeed, the picture will become more complicated. If the elections were held today, the actual vote for the Blue Coalition and Attack - IMRO would be just above the threshold. Just under it, but with the potential to reach it, would be UDF and the party of SKAT TV's owner, Valeri Simeonov - NFSB, sociologists noted.

With between a 2.8% and 3% support of all voters, the two potential coalitions of rightists and nationalists would achieve a little more than the 4% barrier. UDF and Valeri Simeonov's NFSB have equal support (1.6%) but while the former is in a decline, the latter is in a state of growth. For now, they remain below the line, but in case of possible coalitions or mobilisation, they could exceed the 4% threshold. The other nationalist parties, such as OLJ, NMSP, Leader and the Green party, would get less than 1% support.

Currently, neither the possibility that these parties will enter into the 42nd National Assembly, nor the option that they will remain outside can be ruled out. Besides the tension, this balance of power leads to great uncertainty not only in terms of the composition of the next Parliament but also about the possible governmental formulae in it, Alpha Research commented, noting that in a Parliament consisting of six or seven parties, the coalition formulae would be much broader and politically diluted.

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