NCPOR: GERB leads BSP by 4.7% in the polls

With just two days to the referendum, a survey by the National Centre for Public Opinion Research (NCPOR) showed GERB leading BSP by 4.7% in the polls. If elections were held now, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) and Bulgaria of the Citizens would be the other two parliamentary represented political parties. GERB would receive 24.2% of the votes, BSP has the support of 19.5% of people surveyed, while MRF's share is 6.4%. Most notably, Bulgaria of the Citizens is trailing MRF by a very close margin, securing 5.9% of potential votes (the margin for statistical error is 1%). The Ataka Party and the Blue Coalition would receive 2.6% and 2.5% of the votes, respectively, if elections were held today.

However, NCPOR said that at least two more parties, besides the four already exceeding the 4% threshold, are almost sure to enter the next Parliament – a potential alliance between Ataka and the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization (IMRO) and the newly formed partnership between Democrats for Strong Bulgaria (DSB) and the Union of Unity. At the moment, the Union of Democratic Forces (UDF), lead by Emil Kabaivanov, doesn't have the backing to make it into the next Parliament on its own.

It's too early to tell whether the events at the National Conference of MRF have made more of the party's supporters decide to vote, sociologists say. In the past few months, there has been a growing following of the National Front for Salvation of Bulgaria and Civil Alliance for Real Democracy (GORD), according to NCPOR.

Boyko Borissov (GERB) tops the list of the most popular party leaders with 41.5%, followed by Meglena Kuneva (Bulgaria of the Citizens) with 31.5%. Sergei Stanishev (BSP) is third with 27%, just 0.7% ahead of Krasimir Karakachanov (IMRO). Nadezhda Neinski (Union of Unity) is fifth with 16.8%, which is 2.8% more than the popularity rating of Veselin Mareshki. Volen Siderov (Ataka) and Yane Yanev (Order, Law and Justice) are seventh and eighth with 12.1% and 11.2%, respectively. The Top 10 is completed by Martin Dimitrov (9.7%) and Ivan Kostov (9%), co-heads of the Blue Coalition.

NCPOR points out that Veselin Mareshki's bid to run in the upcoming general elections and to participate in the country's political life has given him a starting 14% rating of approval. His supporters are mostly low-income individuals and residents of regional centres. It's too early to tell what chance the combined forces of Mareshki and Yanev have of entering the next Parliament.

NCPOR's survey was conducted between 16th and 20th of January, 2013 among 1,000 adult individuals in 86 settlements.

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